Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-31 1.882228 1.987821 2.098348 2.223044 2.360277 2.507228 2.677188
2025-09-07 1.733130 1.880983 2.042936 2.234893 2.458063 2.711694 3.025209
2025-09-14 1.613270 1.781667 1.971634 2.204346 2.485364 2.818684 3.251772
2025-09-21 1.519383 1.700217 1.908851 2.171099 2.497546 2.898612 3.442330
2025-09-28 1.439790 1.628180 1.849503 2.133634 2.496413 2.955735 3.602167
2025-10-05 1.405925 1.607341 1.848495 2.165113 2.580646 3.124614 3.923560
2025-10-12 1.377009 1.589846 1.849094 2.196589 2.664586 3.297211 4.266542
2025-10-19 1.348650 1.570827 1.845664 2.221071 2.738923 3.460562 4.612944
2025-10-26 1.308982 1.535236 1.818578 2.211522 2.764293 3.554374 4.861525
2025-11-02 1.272332 1.501626 1.791992 2.200326 2.785300 3.641691 5.107993
2025-11-09 1.233087 1.462923 1.756704 2.174729 2.782979 3.692170 5.297032
2025-11-16 1.195549 1.424962 1.720645 2.145839 2.773302 3.729312 5.465719
2025-11-23 1.169987 1.402350 1.704882 2.145604 2.807488 3.840566 5.787469
2025-11-30 1.150120 1.386513 1.697523 2.156761 2.859320 3.984641 6.193404
2025-12-07 1.117697 1.352664 1.663985 2.127927 2.846770 4.019180 6.388318
2025-12-14 1.086378 1.319306 1.629872 2.096528 2.827949 4.040795 6.559183
2025-12-21 1.055497 1.285640 1.594172 2.061125 2.800460 4.044612 6.692344
2025-12-28 1.047582 1.283022 1.601845 2.090873 2.880002 4.245669 7.294887
2026-01-04 1.040074 1.280592 1.609483 2.120603 2.961052 4.457297 7.969961
2026-01-11 1.030896 1.275462 1.612902 2.143716 3.032120 4.657187 8.666737
2026-01-18 1.012651 1.257070 1.596398 2.134702 3.046889 4.747998 9.101180
2026-01-25 0.994825 1.238782 1.579431 2.124132 3.058074 4.832350 9.538833
2026-02-01 0.973928 1.215629 1.554614 2.099958 3.043520 4.862187 9.826643